What is preventing a ceasefire in Gaza? — Imad al-Din Hussein

What are the obstacles and barriers that stand in the way of reaching an agreement to stop Israel’s aggression in the Gaza Strip?

Since the aggression began on October 7, we have witnessed hundreds of meetings, conferences, communications and negotiations at all levels, from the first technical experts to the presidents and leaders of the state and government. With the exception of the first armistice signed on November 24 last year, which stopped the aggression for a week and allowed the release of some hostages, all negotiations have been deadlocked, the root cause being Israel’s intransigence, which wants the resistance to surrender or continue the aggression and turn the Gaza Strip into an uninhabitable place.

We all know that every time Hamas accepts the conditions proposed, Israel will put forward new conditions. The most prominent example is that in May last year, Hamas and Israel accepted the proposal put forward by Egypt, Qatar and the United States, but Netanyahu fled in shame. They occupied the Philadelphia axis and the Rafah intersection.

Now we have to ask: What is standing in the way of a deal?

The answer is that there is a set of fundamental differences, as follows: First: Israel insists that there is no clause stipulating its complete withdrawal from the Gaza Strip during or after the agreement. She sees this as a reward for Hamas. Netanyahu insists on a written approval from the United States stipulating that Israel has the right to resume fighting after the release of prisoners. Hamas rejects this demand and wants guarantees from Egypt, Qatar, the United States, Russia and Turkey that Israel will not launch another aggression. Obviously, Hamas insists on this because it holds the most important trump card as long as Israel makes a comeback? !

Second: Israel wants to search every Palestinian returning to the northern Gaza Strip to ensure that fighters belonging to the resistance movement do not enter.

This condition was supported by Israel under pressure and intervention from Egypt and the United States, and then tightened. Hamas rejected this because it would turn Israel into a permanent occupation force that could enter whoever it wanted and block whoever it wanted. During the negotiations, it was suggested that a neutral body be set up to perform this task.

Third: Israel insists on knowing the names of living prisoners, especially soldiers, and demands their release in the first phase, and the release of the dead at a later stage. Hamas refuses this because it would actually require a ceasefire to conduct an accurate inventory, and politically, Israel getting living soldiers first would mean that it could immediately resume aggression, even at the expense of the remaining prisoners’ bodies, especially since it would actually apply the “Hannibal Principle” that the capture of Israeli soldiers or citizens should not hinder the army from achieving its goals

Israel also demands a veto over the names of senior Palestinian prisoners Hamas wants to release, or agrees to release some but expel them from where they live in the West Bank or Gaza, similar to what happened when resistance leaders were expelled to Israel in 1992 from the Lebanese village of Marj al-Zuhur, most of whom belonged to the Islamist movement even before Hamas was officially founded.

Fourth: Israel insists on continuing to occupy the Rafah crossing and the Philadelphia axis to ensure full control of the only land border of the Gaza Strip. Hamas rejects this, and Egypt also strongly rejects it because this is the Egyptian-Palestinian border, not only because of the peace treaty signed with Israel in 1979, but also according to the annex to Israel’s withdrawal from the Gaza Strip in 2005.

The United States and some European countries have tried to reach a compromise solution, but Egypt refuses to consolidate the Israeli occupation and only wants Palestinian administration or international participation without Israel’s presence so that this does not happen in the future.

Fifth: Israel wants to continue to have a presence at the Martyrs’ Junction or the so-called Nezarim axis, which was created by Israel to separate northern Gaza from southern Gaza in order to ensure continued effective control of the Gaza Strip and to invade its cities at any time, something that Hamas refuses and insists on withdrawing from.

These are the most important issues and obstacles that the Cairo negotiations will seek to overcome in the next few days.

But there is one major disagreement that has yet to be clearly announced: If a ceasefire and truce is reached, who will rule the Gaza Strip afterwards? ! This is the biggest dilemma.