After EU election failure, France’s Macron risks early election

MacronThe decision represents a major roll of the dice with France’s far right at an all-time high in the polls, nearly all other parties in disarray and the Paris Olympics just around the corner.

The call for early voting is as follows Sunday’s EU elections were a disasterwhere the National Assembly (RN) Marine Le Pen The party won 31.5% of the vote, more than double the support of Macron’s party, according to Ipsos forecasts.

The French president, in his address to the nation explain He could not ignore voters’ warnings, noting that France’s far-right parties had won nearly 40 percent of the vote in total. He said the National Assembly election would be held on June 30, with a second round on July 7.

“This is a crucial moment for clarity. I have heard your messages and concerns and I will not ignore them… France needs a clear majority to act calmly and harmoniously,” he said.

The announcement was naturally welcomed by Marine Le Pen, whose National Rally will have its best chance yet of seizing power in the upcoming parliamentary elections.

“If the French people have confidence in us in the upcoming legislative elections, we are ready to take power,” said the candidate, who came in second in the last two presidential elections. “We are ready to put the country back on its feet.”

If Le Pen’s anti-immigrant party wins a commanding majority in the National Assembly, the premiership will likely go to her protégé Jordan Bardella, a photogenic 28-year-old who led the far-right party to its highest ever score in EU elections.

In this scenario, Macron would still direct defense and foreign policy, but he would lose the power to set the domestic agenda — and be remembered as the president who let the far right in.

Macron’s humiliation

The result of Sunday’s election means that France, a founding member of the European Union, will send the largest delegation of far-right, Eurosceptic lawmakers of the 27-nation bloc to Brussels.

National rallies have historically performed well European electionswhich topped the 2014 and 2019 elections. Its victory on Sunday by a huge 15 percentage points — up from 1% five years ago — suggests that Le Pen’s party is at an all-time high and Macron’s camp is at an all-time low.

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The result marks a sharp rebuke of France’s pro-European president, who came to power in 2017 promising to ensure French voters “no longer have a reason to vote for extreme parties.”

Macron raised the stakes during his campaign, warning that “Europe is overwhelmed” and more recently pointing to a resurgence of the far right as a threat to the continent. Normandy Landing Commemoration.

His defeat is also a heavy blow to the country’s young prime minister, Gabriel ArtellHe has been in office for less than six months and aims to inject new energy into Macron’s second term.

“Don’t be like the British and cry after Brexit,” Attal told voters days before the election, suggesting they would regret putting their future in the hands of eurosceptics. Such dire warnings no longer appear to hurt Le Pen’s party, which has long since abandoned its call for a “French Brexit.”

According to an Ipsos survey on Sunday, 68% of RN supporters said they voted “first and foremost to express opposition to the president and his government” – compared to just 39% nationwide. While voters at large said they voted mainly based on EU issues, a whopping 73% of Badra voters said national issues took priority.

The same survey also stated migrant and the cost of living crisis – the main vote winner for the RN – are top of mind for voters. As the parties now busy themselves preparing for the parliamentary elections in three weeks’ time, these topics are likely to continue to be high on the agenda.

Split and failure

For the country’s fractured left, the European elections were another wake-up call about the dangers of division. Just two years ago, the NUPES alliance came second to Macron’s ruling coalition in parliamentary elections, raising hopes for an end to the factional fighting and bickering that has dogged left-wing candidates for years.

Those hopes were dashed on the eve of the EU elections, with five independent lists vying for an dwindling number of votes. Their combined share of the vote was around 33%, three percentage points less than the far right’s cumulative share.

Notably, the main victim of the split was the Green Party, which was the first party to announce that it would go independent rather than join NUPES. This decision backfired, with the Greens now projected to win just 5.5% of the vote, down from 13% in 2019, thus barely reaching the 5% threshold required to send MPs to Brussels.

France will not surrenderRadical left party Jean-Luc Melenchonperformed better than it did five years ago, taking 8.7 percent of the vote – a result that was higher than expected and partly vindicated the party’s decision to make the Gaza war the centrepiece of its campaign. But its dominance on the left will now be challenged by a resurgent Socialist Party, which is expected to win 14 percent of the vote.

Perhaps that is so because the moribund Socialist Party is led not by a party insider but by MEP Raphaël Glucksmann, a former writer and commentator who is the third man in the campaign and a potential new champion for centre-left voters desperate for an alternative to Mélenchon.

Glucksmann and the LFI have been at loggerheads throughout the EU election campaign, meaning the chances of reviving the NUPES coalition before the June 30 elections look slim, despite calls for unity from left-wing politicians following Macron’s announcement.

Russian Roulette

Glucksmann said he was “absolutely flabbergasted” by Macron’s risky move and accused the French president of giving in to the National Rally’s demands for early voting. He added: “This is an extremely dangerous game for democracy and the system.”

Conservatives in the opposition were equally harsh, criticizing the government’s reckless actions and saying they were not ready for a fight after the heavy losses it suffered. European elections.

“Dissolving parliament without giving anyone time to organize, without any advocacy, is playing Russian roulette with the fate of the country,” he said. Valerie PecresseFormer center-right presidential candidate RepublicansThe party received just over 7% of the vote on Sunday, its lowest score ever.

For Macron, there is already an ominous precedent.

The last French president to announce early elections was Jacques Chirac In 1997, his risky move was seen as one of the biggest own goals in modern French politics.

Chirac’s reckless move only further angered already unhappy voters, who deprived the conservative president of his majority and forced him to “coexist” with the left-wing government of Prime Minister Lionel Jospin.

While voters today may be just as unhappy, the French political landscape is very different.

Macron and the far right have effectively broken down the traditional left-right divide, making it harder for mainstream parties to switch power. While two rounds of elections have so far prevented the far right from taking power, voters are increasingly unwilling to support the anti-Le Pen front – making the outcome of the upcoming elections very unpredictable.

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