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The violence affecting New Caledonia since 13 May has led to a massive exodus of people, a phenomenon that remains difficult to quantify but is worrisome due to its potentially serious consequences, particularly on the health system.
“Who dreams of living in Caledonia today?” Annaëlle, 36, who has lived in Nouméa for more than seven years, had her speech therapy clinic burnt down in the first days of the unrest.
She and her partner decided to leave Le Caillou and return to France at the end of September. “Either we make the choice of faith to stay, or we make the switch,” She explained and called out “It’s an extremely difficult decision.” “We have family, friends here… it’s just heartbreaking, like a bereavement.”she confided.
In the end, it was the governors of the southern provinces who finally convinced them. In her speech on July 14, Sonia Backès called for empowering the provinces, considering that “The Karnak World and the Western World” Just like “Oil and WaterIlse “Don’t mix”. “I felt ‘Caledonian fatigue’ when I listened to him. It’s harder for us to find our own position when we see radical positions.”
“We have no future here”
Sarah, forty, married a Caledonian.
Sarah, a corporate executive who is married to a Caledonian and has two children, is also considering leaving. “We have no future here””, said the forty-year-old woman, who has spent her entire life on the Cayou and has never considered leaving it.
One of her family members’ house has been reduced to ashes and her husband, who works in the nickel industry and is now partially unemployed, has a rather bleak outlook, which gives her little hope.
“I wasn’t born here, but I felt at home. It was hard to get used to that idea. Later, we were overwhelmed by economic reality. Our house was in a neighborhood that had suffered a lot, and it wasn’t worth a lot today.” She testified.
We expect the second wave (of job departures) to be more related to the economic collapse and political and economic uncertainty.
Jean-Damien Ponroy, Representative of the Federation of Real Estate Agencies in New Caledonia
“The first wave of departures was driven by fear, but we expect the second wave to be more about the economic collapse and political and economic uncertainty.”Jean-Damien Ponroy, representative of the New Caledonian Federation of Real Estate Agents, analyzed.
According to industry data, 25 to 30 sales agreements are currently being signed each month, compared with a normal average of 250 to 280, and nearly 70% of signed agreements have been cancelled. The rental market has also been affected, jeopardizing a profession that employs 500 people.
David Guyenne, president of the New Caledonian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, is concerned about the future image and attractiveness of the territory. He believes that the risk is that many skills leave, which would require a certain diversification of the economic structure. To this must be added the loss of contributions to the social protection system or tax revenues, which Caledonia is already financially exhausted from.
CCI initially estimated that 6,000 people out of 271,000 residents have left the country since the beginning of the year, with a sharp increase since May 13. On top of that, she expects a 300% increase compared to previous years.
The company remains cautious about the figures, but they show a strong trend, reflected by increased activity from moving companies.
Another example is medical recruitment, which is working almost exclusively with nursing staff from France. Many pharmacies have had to reduce the services they offer or even close completely.
The region’s main hospital, Médipole, is also facing major difficulties. According to data provided by the president of the hospital’s medical committee, by the end of the year the institution should be short of nearly 35 of the 250 doctors it normally has.
The next census, originally planned for 2024, has been postponed to 2025. The census, to be carried out by the Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (Isee), will give precise data on the scale of population loss.
The situation is very worrying.
David Guyenne, President, CCI-NC
But the phenomenon is not new: it began in 2014. An analysis by Isee has already shown that between 2014 and 2019 there was a net immigration deficit of 10,300 people, the first time in 40 years.
‘The situation is very worrying’CCI-NC Chair Judge, called on “It’s up to everyone at the table, including civil society and youth, to reach a (political) agreement and provide long-term visibility” To New Caledonia.
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