Why violent crime is falling — and what it means for the 2024 election

Violent crime levels dropped significantly in the first half of this year, according to a new report Metropolitan Chiefs Association.

Overall, violent crime in the 69 cities fell 6 percent and homicides fell 17 percent compared with the same period last year. Columbus, Ohio, had the largest drop in violent crime, down 1.3 percent. 41%According to an Axios data analysis, New York City saw the biggest drop in home prices. But cities like Miami, Washington, D.C., and Austin, Texas also saw big drops. Notably, New York City was not included in the data. Other reports Shows that violent crime there is also declining.

It’s hard to say exactly what’s driving the COVID-19-induced drop in crime. It could be due in part to policies to combat crime at the federal, state, and local levels. But it could also simply be a symptom of the country returning to normal life after the pandemic — or a combination of these and other factors.

Republicans have long sought to use concerns about crime as a political weapon against the Biden administration. While former President Donald Trump doesn’t appear to have given up on that attack strategy, Democrats can now use the new data as a defense. However, it’s far from certain that this approach will work.

In one Saturday’s statementPresident Biden praised $1.9 trillion stimulus bill Congress passed a bill in 2021 allocating $15 billion for public safety and violence prevention efforts to help lower crime rates. He also cited bipartisan gun control laws that expanded background checks and encouraged states to adopt “red flag” laws to prevent people who pose a danger to themselves or others from obtaining guns.

While these laws may have helped, some experts are highly skeptical about attributing the decline to specific government initiatives.

“I think it’s too early to know exactly why murder and violent crime are down,” said Jeff Asher, a crime researcher who manages the crime database. AH Data Analysis“In general, I’m skeptical that political action will cause crime to go up or down, especially at the federal level.”

However, pandemic crime is an outlier in terms of its speed and spread, so Asher said government spending on public safety could help curb the sharp increase in violence.

Other social and psychological factors may also play a role. Anna HarveyA crime researcher at New York University said,Solid evidence” suggests that violent crime is often driven by emotions such as stress or anger, as well as opportunity and the threat of arrest.

“The pandemic appears to have directly increased stress levels, which may have contributed to the increase in violent crime during the pandemic and the decrease in crime after the pandemic eased,” she said. “The pandemic also affected the likelihood that violent crimes would be discovered by others and reported to the police, affecting the ‘will I get caught?’ aspect of the decision-making process.”

She said that because the flow of people in cities dropped sharply during and after the pandemic and has slowly recovered, many people chose to work from home or leave the city, so the chances of being caught have decreased. Researchers at the University of Toronto used cell phone location data to Establishment The city centres of many northern cities will not return to pre-pandemic activity levels until at least November 2022.

“The trend is that foot traffic is gradually coming back, and at the same time, violent crime is gradually coming down,” Harvey said.

This year, crime may not be Hot Issues A majority of voters say crime is the most important problem facing the country. An equal share of voters (1% to 4%) say crime is the most important problem facing the country. Gallup Survey There has been crime every month this year, although the crime rate has dropped. But it is still a big problem: Gallup poll in March53% said they were “very” worried about crime and violence.

Trump tried to take advantage of this and linked former federal prosecutor and California Attorney General Harris to “Cutting police fundingHe also passed Raising fears of criminal threats from undocumented immigrantsLinking the crime problem to Biden’s unpopular handling of the U.S.-Mexico border.

Harris Being pushed back Trump recently released a new ad that calls her a former “border state prosecutor” who has “decades of experience fighting violent crime.” Trump’s attacks on immigration are also completely unfounded: Illegal border crossings have always been a Five consecutive months of decline And it has returned to its highest level since Trump took office. FBI crime data also shows Border cities tend to have some of the lowest crime rates in the country. Other studies have shown that crime rates among U.S.-born citizens are more than twice as high as in other cities. More likely to be arrested for violent crimes More than undocumented immigrants.

That won’t necessarily eliminate the political threat posed by Republican claims that Democrats are soft on crime. Public perception often lags behind statistics, and it may be hard for the party to change perceptions after the coronavirus-era crime wave. But the next time Trump claims crime is out of control, the Harris campaign will have new evidence to point to.