The economy will shrink by 0.5% in the first quarter of 2024

The economic contraction widened by 0.4 percentage points from the initial estimate. This was mainly due to a downward adjustment in exports. But the overall picture has not changed. The contraction in the first quarter was mainly due to goods exports. The decline in exported goods is related to the contraction in the manufacturing sector.

Second estimate

The second estimate is made 85 days after the end of the quarter. The first estimate is calculated 45 days after the end of the quarter and is based on the latest data available at that time. After the first estimate, new information about the state of the Dutch economy continues to flow in, including data on the construction industry, business services, hotels and restaurants, the public sector, the care sector, and the financial sector. This data is added and new calculations are made.

On average, the difference between the final and first estimates is 0 over the five-year period from 2019 to 2023.Every .1The absolute value of the percentage point, but between -0.3 and 0.7 percentage pointsntage points, both of which occur in 2021.

Revision of national accounts

In the second estimate for the first quarter of 2024, figures reflect the latest revisions to the national accounts.

Macroeconomic statistics are regularly revised. As part of the revision process, new data sources, methodologies and concepts are introduced to ensure that the Dutch economy is presented in the best possible way consistent with all underlying statistics, data sources and international guidelines for the compilation of macroeconomic statistics. This revision is the Netherlands’ response to the European Commission’s recommendation that member states revise their methodologies at least every five years.

Adjusted month-on-month growth

Each time a new estimate is released, CBS also recalculates the seasonally adjusted series for the previously released quarter. The revisions are incorporated into the new series. In addition, the revisions change some aspects of how the quarterly time series are corrected for common seasonal effects. These changes result in larger adjustments than usual.

The quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2023 has been revised from 0.3 to 0.1 paircent; for Q3, from -0.3 to -0.4 pairsFor Q2, from -0.4 to 0.0 pointsPercentage; for Q1, from -0.4 to -0.3%.

The economic contraction forecast for the first quarter of 2023 was revised down to 0.6%

GDP fell by 0.6 PercentIn the first quarter, the economy shrank by.7 PercentThe upward revision is mainly due to the trade balance. The overall picture has not changed. The decline in the trade balance and investment were the biggest contributors to the contraction.

As part of the revision, all quarterly data for the period 1995 to 2024 have been recalculated, which has resulted in other year-on-year changes.

Annual data

Annual data from 1995 to 2023 have also been revised and recalculated. The revised time series data can be found on StatLine. Economic growth in 2023 remains at 0.1 minute latert. Economic growth is expected to be 5.0 lbsRecently, by comparison, it was 4.3 pagesThat’s a few percent higher than previous estimates.

39,000 new jobs

The second estimate shows that the number of people employed or self-employed increased by 39KThe first quarter of 2024 is an increase compared to the fourth quarter of 2023. According to the initial estimate, the increase was 42 AlthoughUnreal work.

In addition, the second estimate for the first quarter of 2024 shows that the number of people employed or self-employed increased by 1% year-on-year.22 years oldNot true, compared to 117 Althoughusand based on the first estimate.

Employment data will be adjusted as more information becomes available.