The economic outlook remains grim | CBS

The CBS Business Cycle Tracker is a tool for monitoring the economic situation in the Netherlands. It provides an overview of the macroeconomic situation over the past month or quarter based on all data published by the CBS. However, this situation can still vary between different households, companies or regions.

Consumers are more negative, producers are less negative

In June 2024, Dutch consumers’ negative sentiment increased slightly from the previous month, but producers’ negative sentiment decreased slightly. However, confidence remains below the long-term average of the past two decades.

Household consumption, exports and investment rise

After adjusting for price changes and shopping day patterns, household spending increased 0.6% in April 2024 from a year earlier. Spending increased on both goods and services.

In April 2024, total merchandise exports (adjusted for the number of working days) increased by 2.3% year-on-year. This was the first increase in exports in nearly a year. In particular, exports of chemical products, food, beverages and tobacco, and machinery increased.

In April 2024, investment in tangible fixed assets increased by 7.4% year-on-year. This was mainly due to increased investment in buildings, machinery (including defense equipment), infrastructure, other road transport (trucks, trailers, etc.) and aircraft. April 2024 had three more working days than April 2023.

Manufacturing output fell 3.5% in April

In April 2024, calendar-adjusted Dutch manufacturing output was 3.5% lower than in April 2023. Year-on-year output also contracted in the first nine months. After adjusting for seasonal and calendar effects, manufacturing output grew by 0.4 peopleThere was a decrease in April compared to March.

Bankruptcies fall slightly in May

After adjusting for court days, there were 18 fewer bankruptcies filed in May than in April. That’s a 5% drop. However, bankruptcy filings have been on an upward trend for more than two years.

House prices rose nearly 9% in May

Existing owner-occupied home prices were 8.6% higher on average in May 2024 compared to one year ago. Prices in May were 1.1% higher than in April.

More hours worked, more job openings, lower unemployment

In the first quarter of 2023, seasonally adjusted working hours increased by 0.3% compared to the previous quarter. In the first quarter of 2024, employees and self-employed people worked a total of more than 3.7 billion hours.

Over the past three months, the number of unemployed people has fallen by an average of 4,000 per month. In May 2024, the number of unemployed people was 367,000, equivalent to 3.6% of the labor force. In April, it was 3.7%. Since the summer of 2023, the unemployment rate has hovered around 3.6.

After six consecutive quarters of decline, the number of job openings increased slightly in the first quarter of 2024. At the end of the first quarter, the number of job openings was 411,000, up nearly 1,000 from the end of December.

In the first quarter of 2024, the turnover of temporary employment and employment agencies was 2.9 peAn increase compared to the same period last year.

The economy will shrink by 0.5% in the first quarter of 2024

According to the second estimate from Statistics Netherlands (CBS), gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.5% in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the fourth quarter of 2023. The contraction in the first quarter was mainly due to goods exports. The decline in goods exports is associated with a contraction in the manufacturing sector.