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(Iyad Qatlawi)
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February 7, 1446
November 8, 2024 AD
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As the Zionist war on Gaza enters its eleventh month, many problems have become apparent as Zionist claims of intransigence and the two sides fail to agree on a final formula for the exchange of terms, but have yet to articulate a clear vision for its end. Application Scenario What will the situation in the industry lead to?
After the Al-Aqsa flood campaign, the regional and international parties showed obvious confusion in dealing with the future management options of the Gaza Strip, which destroyed the chances of a ceasefire and an end to the war. This forced decision-makers to imagine several scenarios for the future management of the post-war Gaza Strip, which consumed the green and drought, destroyed all aspects of life, and brought about a tragic reality that requires facing a series of major challenges.
Scenario 1: Military reoccupation of the Gaza Strip:
According to this scenario, the Zionist authorities re-impose occupation and full military, political and security control over the Gaza Strip and manage the affairs of the population as a direct occupation force, which forces them to bear the consequences of the sector politically, economically and financially, which imposes a huge burden on them and requires them to directly provide for the needs of the people as an occupation force, the consequences of which include:
1. Complete political and geographic separation of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, and an end to any role of the Palestinian Authority therein.
2. The Gaza Strip is completely under the control of the Zionist occupation forces and the situation has returned to the status quo before the withdrawal on August 15, 2005.
3. Targeting and persecuting the resistance forces, attempting to destroy them, disarm them, deprive them of their elements of strength, and turn the Gaza Strip into a hot battlefield.
4. End the siege on the Gaza Strip, as there is no reason for it to continue.
Second scenario: establishment of a local administration in the Gaza Strip following occupation:
Through this situation, the Zionist occupation authorities are trying to create an alternative local authority from tribal and community facades and figures associated with the occupation, or agree to work under its management and supervision and play a role similar to the village associations in the Palestinian territories occupied in 1978, as an alternative to the Palestine Liberation Organization, or a role similar to the Lebanese puppet South Lebanon Army militia led by Saad Haddad in 1976, which is what the occupation forces tried to do in their failed offensive into the northern Gaza Strip through the mukhtars and prominent figures or figures opposed to Hamas and resistance forces outside Gaza. Its negative results include:
1. Consolidate the geographical separation between the Gaza Strip and the Palestinian Authority-administered West Bank and establish a new reality of two parallel authorities.
2. Establish a puppet government subordinate to the occupation and subject to its interests and priorities, relieve it of the burden of administering the Gaza Strip as an occupying force, thereby exercising absolute military and security control over the Gaza Strip.
3. To subject Palestinian decisions to external interference and to put an end to any form of sovereignty and independence of that decision.
4. Target the resistance of local administrative militias and occupation forces, persecute them, seek to eliminate them, disarm them, and put an end to their political and social roles.
5. Create conditions for a civil war in the Gaza Strip between resistance groups and the respectable Palestinian people on the one hand and the local government on the other, labeling Palestine as an agent of occupation.
6. End the unjustified siege of the Gaza Strip.
Scenario 3: National consensus between the Palestinian Authority and faction partnerships: This scenario requires:
1. The Fatah leadership and the Authority will reach an agreement with the Palestinian factions led by Hamas to end the political and geographical division of Palestine, stop its negative impact on the Palestinian issue, immediately unify the internal front, establish a national partnership on the Palestinian issue, face challenges and reach a common plan for managing the affairs of the sector.
2. Reduce Zionist, regional and international interference in Palestinian affairs, cut off many suspicious and dangerous Zionist, regional and international programs, strengthen the Palestinian position in the face of external pressure, show the oppression of the Palestinian people in politics and media, focus foreign policy on the opportunity to end the Zionist siege of the Gaza Strip, find a viable solution and impose it on the Zionist side through the force of law.
3. Provide good opportunities to overcome the humanitarian impact of the war of extermination, implement reconstruction projects, and reduce the returns of regional and international political blackmail.
4. Preserve the role of the resistance movement and its weapons as an option for exerting pressure on the occupation and as a necessary condition for national liberation and defense of the rights of the Palestinian people.
In this context, representatives of 14 Palestinian factions, including leaders of the Fatah and Hamas movements, signed in the presence of the Chinese Foreign Minister: "Wang Yi"Regarding the Beijing Declaration issued by China on July 23, which stipulates the end of division, strengthening Palestinian unity, and the establishment of an interim national reconciliation government to govern Gaza after the war, the factions unanimously agreed at the meeting that the establishment of an interim national reconciliation government shall be decided by the President in accordance with the Palestinian Basic Law, provided that it first unifies all Palestinian institutions on the territory of the State of Palestine, begins the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip, and paves the way for the holding of general elections in accordance with the approved electoral law and accepts the supervision of the Central Election Commission as soon as possible. They also stressed that the Palestinian people have the right to resist and end the occupation in accordance with international law and the UN Charter.
In a Zionist reaction to the agreement, Foreign Minister Israel Katz expressed Tel Aviv’s rejection of the Palestinian deal, saying: "Hamas and Fatah agree in China to jointly control Gaza after war, but in reality this won’t happen"He also criticized the Palestinian president for his involvement.
Scenario 4: Joint administration by the Palestinian Authority and Arab and regional forces:
This scenario, based on the division of roles, whereby the Palestinian Authority is responsible for managing administrative and service matters, while a joint security administration is being formed between the Palestinian Authority and Arab and regional parties, with the US security services supervising and directly sponsoring it, with security coordination with the Zionist occupation authorities, is considered the closest to what the Zionists would accept and impose.
This situation will result in:
1. Stop the war in Gaza and address its humanitarian impact
2. End the blockade of the Gaza Strip, as there is no reason to continue it.
Its disadvantages include:
1. Consolidate and strengthen the Palestinian political divide and prevent reconciliation efforts and a national partnership in the management of the Gaza Strip.
2. Subject Palestinian decision-making and security affairs to complete and direct Zionist, regional, and American interference.
3. Target, prosecute, disarm and end the political and social role of resistance groups.
4. Threaten the stability of the Gaza Strip due to the presence of regional and international forces in the Gaza Strip and regard them as an occupying force.
The occupying power has and continues to deny the Palestinian Authority any role in governing the Gaza Strip on its own, using as an excuse its weakness and inability to control the affairs of the West Bank and its inability to confront the Palestinian factions. The future of the Gaza Strip, the entity fears that Hamas will once again gain strength and take control of the Gaza Strip again, returning to the status quo ante before October 7.
The Palestinian factions stressed a series of priorities that cannot be abandoned in any agreement, including: withdrawal of Zionist forces, complete end of military presence in the Gaza Strip, preservation of resistance weapons to protect the interests of the Palestinian people and their quest for liberation, maintenance of effective political and social role of resistance factions in the Gaza Strip, thwarting plans to exclude them, strengthening the independence of national decision-making, rejection of foreign interference, reconstruction of the Gaza Strip, overcoming the humanitarian impact of aggression, and breaking the siege on the Gaza Strip since 2007.
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