CNBC/Generation Lab poll: Harris erases Trump’s lead on economy

Younger generations of Americans don’t appear to hold Vice President Kamala Harris responsible for the worsening U.S. economy under the Biden-Harris administration, according to a new survey conducted jointly by CNBC and Generation Lab.

The latest quarterly Youth & Money Survey, conducted after Biden dropped out of the race in July, showed that 69% of Americans aged 18 to 34 believe the economy is getting worse under President Biden.

But they also believe the candidate best able to improve the economy is de facto Democratic nominee Harris, not Republican nominee and former President Donald Trump.

Forty-one percent of respondents said Harris was the best candidate for the economy, while 40% chose Trump and 19% said the economy would perform better under someone else, such as third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

The results represent a 7-point gain for Democrats on the economy since CNBC asked the same question in its Youth & Money poll in May. At that time, only 34% of respondents said Biden, then the Democratic frontrunner, was the best candidate to boost the economy, while 40% said Trump and 25% said Kennedy.

Overall, respondents showed a broader shift in their vote for Harris. If the presidential election were held today, the latest poll shows Harris leading Trump by 12 points among young Americans, 46% to 34%, while 21% said they would vote for Kennedy or another candidate.

Three months ago, the same poll found Trump and Biden virtually tied, with 36% backing Biden, 35% backing Trump and 29% planning to vote for Kennedy.

Harris’ jump in support is particularly noteworthy because the economy is so important to young Americans’ voting choices.

According to the latest survey data from CNBC, when respondents were asked what factors would influence who they voted for, they most often mentioned “economy and cost of living,” with 66% of respondents listing it as one of the top three issues. The second-highest issue was “abortion and reproductive rights,” at 34%, followed by “gun violence/control,” at 26%.

Still, the results raise warning signs for Harris and the Democratic Party.

To win the White House, Harris may need to do better among young people in November than her current 12-point lead in the CNBC and Generation Lab survey.

With less than 90 days until Election Day on Nov. 5, these new results could have a significant impact on a presidential race that has been altered by Biden’s decision to withdraw.

As pollsters race to gather data on whether Harris’ candidacy would change the outcome of the race, one of the biggest unanswered questions from both parties is whether Americans will transfer their apparent frustration with Biden directly to Harris after years of high inflation and interest rates.

The findings suggest that the political drag of “Bidennomics” has not yet weighed on Harris — at least among young people.

For example, in 2020, Biden Won the support of voters aged 18 to 29 He was ahead by 24 percentage points, with 59% of the vote, compared to Trump’s 35%.

While young people have long been a key voter bloc for Democratic candidates, this year, depending on the states in which Kennedy appears on the ballot, the embattled anti-vaccine independent may still be able to steal enough votes from Harris to erode her overall advantage.

Voter turnout is also a potential trouble spot for Democrats. People aged 18 to 34 make up about a quarter of the U.S. population, or about 76 million people, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. U.S. Census Bureau data. In the last presidential election in 2020, 57% of this age group The results are out and voting has begun.

In the current survey, 77% of respondents said they would definitely or probably vote. But in past elections, the number of people who said they planned to vote has typically been much higher than the number who actually voted.

Finally, as is often the case in elections, the economy itself could hurt Harris or help her, depending on which way it goes.

For example, the poll was conducted between July 22 and July 29, before the latest jobs report showed the economy shrinking, raising new concerns about a recession.

The data also came before the stock market sell-off on August 5, which was partly caused by concerns about the poor jobs report.

Meanwhile, most polls of all adults, not just young people, still show Trump retaining an edge when it comes to which candidate voters trust more to improve the economy.

If any bad economic news comes between now and November, voters are likely to blame Harris (who has yet to fully articulate an economic agenda that differs from Biden’s) and turn to Trump’s familiar economic agenda, which is perceived as safe.

The survey, which interviewed 1,043 adults aged 18 to 34, has a margin of error of 3.0 percent.