Demographic Outlook to 2050: Ageing and Increasingly Educated Populations

The previously published CBS Population Projections 2023-2070 describe the most likely future population trends, but there are also uncertainties. For this study, Seven demographic scenarios It is to predict the future population in 2050 if the number of children, life expectancy and immigration are different from those predicted in the population projections.

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Forecast: Population to reach 17.8 million to 21.8 million in 2050

If life expectancy, birth rates and immigration rates increase more than expected (growth scenario), the Dutch population could grow to 21.8 million by 2050. On the other hand, if the actual outcome is lower than predicted, the population will remain roughly the same as it is now (decline scenario). In the grey scenario, life expectancy is the highest of all scenarios and the number of people aged 65 and over increases to 5.4 million (50% more than in 2023). In the green scenario, fertility is the highest of all scenarios and the number of people aged 20 and over increases to 4.7 million (25% more than in 2023).

The elderly population is increasing

In 2023, there are 3.6 million people aged 65 and over in the Netherlands, which is 20% of the total population. In all demographic scenarios, the number of people aged 65 and over increases, both in absolute and relative terms. This is also the case if life expectancy increases only slightly. In the green scenario, where many children are born and people live shorter than expected, the share of people aged 65 and over in 2050 is lowest at 21%. It is highest in the grey scenario at 28%. The share of people aged 65 and over is also high in the low immigration scenario (26%), partly due to a relatively low influx of immigrants between 20 and 39 years old.
Within the broader category of older people, there is a distinction between the young (65-79 years) and the old (80 years and over). In all scenarios, the size of the population in the 65-79 age group is roughly the same compared to 2023. Given the size of the post-war generation born before 1970 compared to the generations that followed them, the share of people aged 80 and over will in most cases be twice as large as that of the post-war generation. A significant number of them will still be alive in 2050 and they will be in the 80 years and over age group.

The population aged 20 to 64 has declined due to low immigration rates

In 2023, there are approximately 10.5 million people aged 20 to 64 in the Netherlands. This represents 59% of the total population. If net immigration (immigration minus emigration) is lower than expected in the coming decades, this group could decline by almost 400,000 (contraction scenario) or 600,000 (low immigration scenario) by 2050.

Under the high migration scenario, this group actually increases, from 1.1 million (Labor scenario) to 1.3 million (Growth scenario). High or low migration rates will have a significant impact on the size of this age group, as most immigrants are in their 20s and 30s.

More educated people in 2050

In 2023, 37% of people aged 20 to 64 will have a university or college degree. This is expected to rise to 47% by 2050. The proportion of people in this age group who have completed the most vocational secondary education (VMBO) is expected to drop from 19% to 13%. This is mainly because today’s 20-39 year olds have a higher average level of education than older generations. All scenes. In this age group, the proportion of people who have completed general upper secondary education (HAVO), preparatory university education (VWO) or vocational upper secondary education (MBO) will remain roughly the same. In 2023, more women than men will have a university degree: 38% and 35%, respectively. By 2050, this gap will be slightly larger.

During the 2018 parliamentary discussions with the Cabinet, the Chamber of Deputies asked the Cabinet to map out the consequences of changes in population size and composition up to 2050. Therefore, NIDI and CBS developed seven future demographic scenarios at the request of the Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment. These scenarios show what would happen if birth rates, life expectancy and immigration were different from those projected in the CBS population projections. In 2024, CBS updated the seven future demographic scenarios in the Population Exploration to 2050 on behalf of the Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment. These projections complement the existing CBS population projections.

This edition of the Demographic Scenarios is part of a larger project that also includes an in-depth examination of the context of demographic trends and their possible impact on policy and society. This part of the project is being carried out by NIDI in partnership with CBS.