3 key points from the Nyangiri by-election

Only when voters are in a state of high anxiety and frustration is it possible for the opposition to overthrow the government.

Nehru Satyamurthy

Like a brief drizzle on a hot day, the Niengiri by-election is over without leaving any trace.

According to the Election Commission, Barisan Nasional candidate Mohd Azmawi Fikri Abdul Ghani won the seat with a majority of 3,352 votes, defeating his rival, PAS candidate Mohd Rizwadi Ismail. Last year, PAS won Nigiri with a majority of only 810 votes.

The by-election results finally proved that UMNO and Barisan Nasional could compete with PN and win. This brought a much-needed morale boost to UMNO.

I see 3 highlights in the Nenggiri by-election, which are as follows.

1. Apathy in favor of coalition rule may have set in

Compared to the Kuala Kubu Baru and Sungai Bakat elections, the Nenggiri by-election saw almost no publicity or campaigning. This apparent lack of energy may indicate that voters on both sides have simply accepted the status quo even if they are not entirely satisfied with it. This “when life gives you lemons, make lemonade out of them” attitude that voters may display is good for the coalition government as it will pour cold water on any attempt by the opposition to overthrow the government. It takes more energy to overthrow a government than to maintain it. The opposition can only overthrow a government if voters are in a state of high anxiety and frustration. If voters are in a state of resignation and malaise, as the Nenggiri by-election showed, the coalition government is more likely to defend Putrajaya than the opposition to conquer it.

2. PAS may eventually abandon Bersatu

PAS and Bersatu have had a rocky relationship for a long time. A big part of the rocky relationship is PAS’ frustration with Bersatu’s constant missteps, even as PAS has gone above and beyond its call of duty to further Perikatan Nasional’s desire to wrest Putrajaya from Pakatan Harapan. Bersatu not only caused Perikatan Nasional to lose Putrajaya after the 2022 general election, it also lost 6 MPs to the coalition government, making it more difficult for Perikatan Nasional to capture Putrajaya. Despite this, Bersatu remains steadfast in its desire to be the party of Perikatan Nasional’s prime minister.

PAS recently retweeted the names of several potential Bersatu leaders, indicating that PAS has lost confidence in Bersatu. Kuomintang Prime Minister MaterialsPAS has never nominated any of its leaders as a candidate for prime minister before. PAS has always believed that the prime minister of the National Alliance will come from Bersatu. However, PAS’ decision to nominate its own leader as a candidate for prime minister may indicate that they have lost confidence in Bersatu’s leadership.

However, PAS’s move may not have been welcomed by UP, which could be one of the main reasons for the recent tensions between PAS and UP.

Another sign that PAS has lost confidence in Bersatu can be seen in the choice of candidate for the Ngili by-election. Perikatan Nasional candidate Mohd Rizwadi Ismail originally belonged to PAS. It was handed over to Bersatu in just two days Earlier, he was nominated as the Perikatan Nasional candidate for the Nenggiri by-election.

His transfer from PAS to Bersatu was only to give Bersatu a credible candidate for the Ningiri by-election, which once again shows how low PAS’s opinion of Bersatu leaders’ integrity is.

Although PN had just won the Ninggili seat a year ago and the Ninggili seat is located in Kelantan, the PAS stronghold, the Bersatu Party was unable to retain the Ninggili seat, which is likely to make the PAS completely lose hope in the Bersatu Party.

If the rumors are true, PAS has been in talks with the following parties: UMNO and Pakistani Rupeewith the purpose of establishing an alliance.

A defeat in Enggili would likely cause PAS to abandon Bersatu and consider an alliance with Umno and PKR more seriously.

3. Anwar may go on the offensive

The Ngiri by-election could be the sign that Anwar is looking for in order to achieve his goals and aspirations in a more decisive manner. Although Anwar has been the prime minister since 2022, it is difficult for him to implement his plans forcefully because his rule is not secure. From the 6th state election in August 2023 to the Sungai Bakap by-election, Anwar has to constantly deal with momentum that could overthrow his rule and make Perikatan Nasional the ruler of Putrajaya.

This momentum may finally succumb in the Nyangiri by-election.

Now that the momentum, often referred to in local parlance as the “green wave,” appears to be finally waning, Anwar may have more room to consolidate his rule and achieve his goals and aspirations.

Anwar had previously wooed six Bersatu MPs to his side to consolidate his rule, and now, after his victory in Nigiri, he may take more similar steps to consolidate his rule.

The canary in the coal mine for whether Anwar ultimately feels secure in his rule can perhaps be seen in the fate of his sworn enemies Mahathir and Daim.

If Anwar feels secure in his rule, Mahathir and Daim are likely to face decisive action in retaliation for what they did to Anwar 25 years ago.